Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:18:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3c68…f379
crypto · 35 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$3 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses20 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)30 / 35
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 5 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 63¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 62¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +66%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +13%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -19%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 61% −$4
other 15% $0
sports 14% $0
politics 5% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 2h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 4h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2 39h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 39h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 80¢ $1 39h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -10.9% -19.4% 67% 27% -19.3%
≤30d 30 -10.9% -19.4% 67% 27% -19.3%
≤90d 30 -10.9% -19.4% 67% 27% -19.3%
all 30 -10.9% -19.4% 67% 27% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 27% -19.3%
10% -27.1% 13% -27.0%
15% -34.1% 7% -34.1%
20% -40.6% 7% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.42 · official $6.42 (match) · 82 history records