Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:06:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3c68…daa6
weather · 1118 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$6 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$42
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1077 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions21
Markets (closed)1097 / 1118
History coverage41d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 21 History 1097 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June 12? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 5? No 100¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on June 11 Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 92% −$2
sports 6% −$3
other 2% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 12 BUY No 100¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June BUY No 99¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $1 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 193 +0.6% -9.0% 99% 3% -9.2%
≤30d 693 -0.6% -10.1% 98% 1% -10.1%
≤90d 1097 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 1% -9.9%
all 1097 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 1% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.81 · official $41.80 (match) · 2231 history records