Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:50:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c68…ca95 other 83 markets active 2d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-3%) realized −$18 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate28%22W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day33.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$20
economics 25% +$7
politics 17% −$2
sports 15% +$1
finance 6% −$7
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
weather 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -7.9% -16.6% 27% 22% -20.6%
≤30d 80 -15.9% -23.9% 28% 16% -12.3%
≤90d 80 -15.9% -23.9% 28% 16% -12.3%
all 80 -15.9% -23.9% 28% 16% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.9% 16% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.2% 11% -20.7%
15% -37.8% 10% -28.4%
20% -43.9% 6% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses22 / 58
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)80 / 83
History coverage8d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day33.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $55 in June? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be at least 85,000? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 21, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $210 in June? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +108%
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading Jun 14 $1 $0 -15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -7%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $660 in June? Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will Claude Code Commits be between 650.0k and 700.0k on June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -64%
Will Nuno Mendes be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 13 $1 $0 -19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $24 $0 +2%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -59%
Will Raphinha be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Claude Code Commits be between 700.0k and 750.0k on June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $4 +$2 +43%
Will Elliot Anderson be in England's Starting 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $108 in June? Jun 12 $22 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +43%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -91%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 +192%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 +400%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -34%
Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -74%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 11 $3 $0 -2%
Will Nurul Hoque Ali win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 11 $0 $0 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -74%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode? Jun 11 $2 $0 -14%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1 $0 -9%
Will PPI YoY be at least 8.0% in May? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will PPI YoY be between 4.0% and 4.9% in May? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 11 $2 −$2 -83%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -91%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $7.00 in June? Jun 10 $48 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -74%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% in May? Jun 10 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Core CPI MoM be -0.1% in May? Jun 10 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in May? Jun 10 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in May? Jun 10 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Graham Platner win between 75% and 80% of votes in the Maine Sena Jun 10 $1 $0 -33%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $50 in June? Jun 10 $12 +$3 +23%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -65%
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $900M and $1.1B at market close Jun 10 $1 $0 -25%
Will Andrew Clough be the Democratic nominee for SC-05? Jun 09 $0 $0 -57%
Will Serena Williams Win Return Doubles Match at HSBC Championships? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $210 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $210 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading SELL Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading SELL Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading SELL Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading SELL Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4d
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $660 in June? SELL No 89¢ $39 4d
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $660 in June? BUY No 89¢ $39 4d
Will Claude Code Commits be between 650.0k and 700.0k on June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Trump approval Up or Down this week? BUY Up 0¢ $0 4d
Trump approval Up or Down this week? BUY Up 0¢ $0 4d
Will Nuno Mendes be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL No 2¢ $1 4d
Trump approval Up or Down this week? SELL Up 8¢ $2 4d
Trump approval Up or Down this week? BUY Up 2¢ $1 4d
Trump approval Up or Down this week? BUY Up 12¢ $2 4d
Trump approval Up or Down this week? BUY Up 10¢ $1 4d
Trump approval Up or Down this week? BUY Up 2¢ $0 4d
Will Claude Code Commits be between 650.0k and 700.0k on June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.38 · official $2.09 (match) · 289 history records