Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c68…74ac other 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+2%) realized +$31 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$1
world 32% +$1
politics 14% $0
sports 8% +$26
crypto 4% $0
finance 4% $0
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -8.9% -17.6% 36% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 11 -8.9% -17.6% 36% 0% -8.9%
all 40 +4.7% -5.3% 45% 2% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 2% -7.1%
10% -14.3% 2% -16.0%
15% -22.6% 2% -24.1%
20% -30.2% 2% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×10.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.95 per $1 lost it wins $14.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage472d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $50 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $5 $0 +6%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $50 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $3 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $53 +$2 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $53 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $43 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? May 07 $1 $0 +3%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Apr 11 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 Masters? Apr 09 $43 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? Apr 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 07 $42 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 02 $43 $0 +0%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 01 $43 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 30 $62 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Mar 29 $43 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 29 $0 $0 -18%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 29 $22 +$1 +4%
Israel military action against Iran in March? Mar 29 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 28 $20 −$1 -4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28? Mar 23 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 18 $9 +$26 +284%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? Mar 18 $18 $0 +3%
Will Illinois win the Big Ten conference tournament? Mar 14 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 23m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 23m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 23m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $13 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $37 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $43 10h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $7 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $3 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $5 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $54 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $55 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $8 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $33 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $13 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $50 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $12 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $38 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $30 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $20 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.40 · official $5.40 (match) · 122 history records