Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:17:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3C 0x3c6a…8a58 crypto 1057 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (103 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-1%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate40%419W / 638L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day103.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$77
14 days−$77
30 days−$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$214
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (103 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 -7.6% -16.4% 73% 65% -18.4%
≤30d 1057 -3.6% -12.8% 40% 17% -12.2%
≤90d 1057 -3.6% -12.8% 40% 17% -12.2%
all 1057 -3.6% -12.8% 40% 17% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover103.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 17% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 7% -20.6%
15% -28.8% 3% -28.3%
20% -35.8% 2% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses419 / 638
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1057 / 1057
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day103.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1057 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $8 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $9 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $7 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $8 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records