Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c6b…268a crypto 530 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (142 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$21,412 (+5%) realized +$21,412 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate81%508W / 123L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$763per market
Trades / day141.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,482
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (142 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 320 -31.1% -37.7% 67% 1% -39.8%
≤30d 631 -16.2% -24.2% 81% 2% -26.3%
≤90d 631 -16.2% -24.2% 81% 2% -26.3%
all 631 -16.2% -24.2% 81% 2% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover141.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 2% -26.3%
10% -31.4% 0% -33.3%
15% ← realistic here -38.1% 0% -39.8%
20% -44.1% 0% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$971) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$872 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21,412
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses508 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)631 / 530
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$763
Trades / day141.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 631 Trades
no open positions (118 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $486 −$486 -100%
Pistons vs. Pacers Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $920 −$920 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $536 −$536 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $530 −$530 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $470 −$470 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $719 −$719 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $393 −$393 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $468 −$468 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $841 −$841 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 9AM ET Jun 18 $900 −$900 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $572 −$572 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $533 −$533 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $487 −$487 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $2,221 −$2,221 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $1,271 −$1,271 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $272 −$272 -100%
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2025-12-07? Jun 18 $935 −$935 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $1,311 −$1,311 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $1,242 −$1,242 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $1,325 −$1,325 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $1,055 −$1,055 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $2,149 −$2,149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 9AM ET Jun 18 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $1,353 −$1,353 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $1,408 −$1,408 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $2,227 −$2,227 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $2,211 −$2,211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $557 −$557 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $466 −$466 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $1,229 −$1,229 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $669 −$669 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $1,115 −$1,115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $236 −$236 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $1,283 −$1,283 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $1,045 −$1,045 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $602 −$602 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $540 −$540 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $931 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $505 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $853 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $953 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $126 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $33 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records