Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:50:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c6c…5e36 sports 140 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$389 (+9%) realized +$458 · open −$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%49W / 88L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$388
14 days+$442
30 days+$430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$373
crypto 3% −$121
world 1% −$4
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +22.4% +10.8% 35% 34% +0.2%
≤30d 129 +14.1% +3.2% 34% 33% -0.0%
≤90d 130 +13.2% +2.4% 34% 32% -2.9%
all 137 +13.2% +2.4% 36% 34% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 34% -2.8%
10% -7.4% 31% -12.1%
15% -16.3% 23% -20.6%
20% -24.5% 19% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$13 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$458
Unrealized−$69
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses49 / 88
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions3
Markets (closed)137 / 140
History coverage103d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage RUSTEC 49¢ 42¢ $31 $27 −$4 (-13%)
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Bebop 47¢ 57¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+22%)
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Bebop 61¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner G2 Ares 36¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $21 +$10 +48%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 +$2 +20%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $44 −$5 -11%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $12 −$3 -27%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$1 -10%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $36 −$10 -28%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 15 $30 +$8 +25%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $12 +$9 +72%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $14 +$6 +42%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $46 −$40 -87%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$26 -84%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $36 +$7 +18%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $42 +$23 +55%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$32 +314%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $11 +$21 +180%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $26 −$4 -17%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $27 +$6 +23%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$12 +59%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $13 +$2 +14%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 −$2 -33%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $23 +$8 +34%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$2 +22%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $138 −$6 -5%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $160 +$83 +52%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$125 +249%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $56 −$20 -36%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$1 -21%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $56 −$16 -29%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $69 −$45 -66%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $150 −$4 -2%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED L Jun 13 $16 −$15 -95%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $56 −$16 -29%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 −$1 -12%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $197 −$66 -33%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $9 +$79 +873%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 56¢ $18 7m
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 42¢ $14 8m
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 47¢ $15 12m
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner SELL Bebop 100¢ $30 28m
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner SELL Bebop 16¢ $2 40m
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner BUY Bebop 25¢ $2 40m
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner SELL Bebop 37¢ $4 42m
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner BUY Bebop 65¢ $7 42m
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner SELL Bebop 78¢ $8 46m
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner BUY Bebop 79¢ $8 47m
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner BUY Bebop 72¢ $23 49m
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner BUY Bebop 54¢ $17 52m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Ares 38¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner BUY Bebop 63¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Ares 36¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner BUY Bebop 67¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner SELL Walczaki 100¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 83¢ $8 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner SELL Top Esports Challenger 42¢ $14 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 52¢ $17 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner SELL Top Esports Challenger 73¢ $23 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 75¢ $24 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner SELL Top Esports Challenger 56¢ $3 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner SELL Saigon Warriors 22¢ $9 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 29¢ $12 6h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 57¢ $3 6h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 Ares 42¢ $13 12h
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner SELL Marsborne 100¢ $7 12h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $32 12h
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner BUY Marsborne 65¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.70 · official $45.70 (match) · 454 history records