Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:02:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3C 0x3c70…34c4 weather 241 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$186 (+2%) realized +$187 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%87W / 142L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$239
14 days+$174
30 days+$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$11
other 34% −$13
weather 21% +$176
sports 8% −$3
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 +32.1% +19.5% 57% 57% +5.5%
≤30d 192 +14.9% +4.0% 45% 44% -7.1%
≤90d 226 +11.6% +0.9% 38% 37% -8.2%
all 229 +11.4% +0.8% 38% 37% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 37% -8.2%
10% -8.8% 37% -17.0%
15% -17.6% 37% -25.0%
20% -25.7% 37% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$8 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$187
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses87 / 142
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)229 / 241
History coverage245d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 17? No 42¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+138%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? No 36¢ 76¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+112%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? No 40¢ 96¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+139%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? No 48¢ 22¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Will Kristen McDonald Rivet win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 17? No 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? No 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$6 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $39 −$38 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +203%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $29 +$31 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 16? Jun 17 $37 +$40 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +186%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Jun 16 $3 +$3 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$4 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $13 +$13 +103%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $18 +$20 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $20 +$25 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $25 +$29 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 +$2 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 15 $7 +$10 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 +$11 +166%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $9 +$10 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $13 +$14 +108%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $15 +$24 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $22 +$22 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $38 +$49 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 +$3 +163%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $2 +$3 +178%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 36¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 36¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY No 48¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 42¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 40¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 35¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 49¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 32¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 32¢ $19 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 42¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 42¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 42¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 42¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 41¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 49¢ $6 13h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 46¢ $20 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 45¢ $20 16h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 44¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 30¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 44¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 35¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 48¢ $29 34h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 41¢ $2 37h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 43¢ $26 41h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 47¢ $7 41h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 47¢ $3 41h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 47¢ $27 43h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 47¢ $2 43h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 49¢ $9 43h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 43¢ $2 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.61 · official $49.58 (match) · 687 history records