Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3C 0x3c75…6094 world 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$893 (+7%) realized +$959 · open −$66
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$586per market
Trades / day19.9pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$103
30 days+$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% +$96
politics 12% −$30
other 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +15.1% +4.1% 50% 30% +5.3%
≤90d 18 +2.5% -7.3% 44% 33% -3.5%
all 18 +2.5% -7.3% 44% 33% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 33% -3.5%
10% -16.1% 22% -12.7%
15% -24.2% 17% -21.1%
20% -31.7% 6% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
21.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$17 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$1,172
Realized+$959
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage37d
Avg bet$586
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes $1,067 $1,013 −$53 (-5%)
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes $97 $80 −$17 (-18%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes $74 $79 +$5 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 07 $737 +$107 +14%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Jun 06 $7 $0 -6%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $41 −$4 -11%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 02 $40 −$11 -28%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $26 $0 +1%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 26 $12 −$3 -23%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 25 $135 +$53 +39%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $28 +$45 +162%
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $107 +$49 +46%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $87 +$31 +35%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $90 −$3 -3%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 16 $146 −$4 -2%
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $71 −$25 -35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 15 $186 −$114 -62%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $76 +$12 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $51 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $68 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $14 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $6 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $8 1h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes $7 1h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes $77 3h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes $3 3h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes $2 3h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,172.15 · official $1,172.15 (match) · 772 history records