Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:41:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c76…0d85 other 264 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%17W / 246L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$30
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$43
sports 22% −$21
politics 7% −$5
economics 6% −$6
culture 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$3
world 5% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 263 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses17 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)263 / 264
History coverage146d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $264 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $61 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $125 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $195 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $884 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $382 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $673 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $662 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $742 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $658 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $531 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $347 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $230 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $133 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $153 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $665 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $291 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $457 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $847 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $66 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $217 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $527 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $217 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $283 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $346 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $338 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $305 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $321 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $232 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $302 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $392 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $369 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $70 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 1h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $61 2h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $61 4h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 5h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 7h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $61 11h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $61 13h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $61 14h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $61 16h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $61 17h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $61 19h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $61 24h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $61 25h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 27h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 29h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 30h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 31h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 45h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 46h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $62 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $62 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.84 · official $60.84 (match) · 1513 history records