Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c77…05f5 crypto 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,070 (-27%) realized −$4,069 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%57W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$2,312
crypto 32% −$1,729
sports 11% −$772
tech 7% −$184
world 7% −$896
politics 6% +$1,803
economics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -2.0% -11.4% 41% 36% -5.5%
≤30d 23 +1.0% -8.7% 43% 39% -2.8%
≤90d 36 -21.8% -29.3% 36% 33% -49.9%
all 145 -13.4% -21.6% 39% 33% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 33% -33.4%
10% -29.1% 26% -39.8%
15% -36.0% 21% -45.6%
20% -42.3% 18% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$97 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$4,069
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses57 / 88
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)145 / 151
History coverage225d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 52¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 21¢ 19¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $43 +$7 +17%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$7 -71%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $12 +$118 +982%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $14 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $20 +$14 +67%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $121 +$29 +24%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$19 +18%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $20 +$6 +29%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $101 +$19 +19%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 −$7 -88%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49 +$22 +44%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 11 $70 −$65 -93%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 23 $36 +$24 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 12 $255 −$246 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 12 $257 −$249 -97%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $220 −$216 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $79 +$21 +27%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $67 −$66 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $18 −$4 -21%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $29 −$28 -98%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? Apr 24 $381 −$381 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 24 $138 +$34 +25%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 24 $97 −$82 -84%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $229 +$104 +46%
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 22 $38 −$38 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Mar 12 $89 −$89 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? Mar 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 12 $88 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 12 $64 +$35 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 12 $41 +$35 +85%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $81 −$36 -44%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $94 −$6 -6%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $95 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $93 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $99 +$9 +9%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Feb 28 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Feb 28 $185 −$111 -60%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $456 −$393 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Feb 13 $213 −$213 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $15 33m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 34m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 34m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 34m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 34m
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 34m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 12h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 12h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 12h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 12h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 12h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 12h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 12h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 12h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 12h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 94¢ $19 12h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 85¢ $43 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 16h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 80¢ $121 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.95 · official $38.95 (match) · 800 history records