Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3c78…f1a6 crypto 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$265 (+19%) realized +$265 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$256
crypto 33% +$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 50% +16.5%
≤30d 6 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 50% +16.5%
≤90d 6 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 50% +16.5%
all 6 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 50% +16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 50% +16.5%
10% -20.1% 50% +5.4%
15% -27.9% 50% -4.8%
20% -34.9% 50% -14.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +29% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$292 vs −$158 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$265
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $156 +$160 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $156 +$134 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $156 −$150 -96%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $600 +$581 +97%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $229 −$225 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $316 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $156 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $289 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $156 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $156 3h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo SELL Juan Manuel Cerundolo 100¢ $1,180 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 50¢ $600 18h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 44¢ $229 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records