Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:55:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3C 0x3c78…593d sports 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-1%) realized −$69 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate50%19W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$615now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days+$27
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$110
crypto 5% −$98
tech 4% −$98
world 3% +$43
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -31.9% -38.4% 0% 0% -45.6%
≤30d 4 -3.3% -12.5% 50% 50% +7.5%
≤90d 31 -28.7% -35.5% 52% 23% -10.2%
all 38 -28.1% -34.9% 50% 24% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.9% 24% -10.7%
10% -41.2% 13% -19.2%
15% -46.9% 5% -27.0%
20% -52.1% 5% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$18 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$615
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses19 / 19
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage132d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China Hong Kong, China 95¢ 97¢ $600 $615 +$15 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Jun 19 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 -8%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $101 +$33 +33%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs China Jun 01 $402 +$70 +18%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $500 +$5 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $101 −$100 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $200 +$44 +22%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $303 −$8 -3%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: United Arab Emirates vs Oman May 03 $200 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -93%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co May 01 $100 +$12 +12%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 29 $10 +$11 +110%
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Pakistan Super League: Lahore Qalandars vs Rawalpindi Pindiz Apr 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 4? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 17 $100 +$4 +4%
T20 Series Namibia vs Scotland: Namibia vs Scotland Apr 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Apr 16 $10 +$3 +25%
T20 Series Namibia vs Scotland: Namibia vs Scotland Apr 15 $50 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Ki Apr 12 $700 +$17 +2%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Gujarat Titans Apr 12 $400 +$17 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 07 $710 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 04 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 04 $110 +$2 +2%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings Apr 03 $800 +$3 +0%
T20 World Cup: England vs West Indies (Game 1) Feb 12 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Ireland (Game 1) Feb 11 $20 −$1 -8%
T20 World Cup: Afghanistan vs South Africa (Game 1) Feb 11 $68 −$32 -47%
T20 World Cup: Pakistan vs USA (Game 1) Feb 10 $45 +$6 +12%
T20 World Cup: New Zealand vs UAE (Game 1) Feb 10 $42 +$3 +7%
T20 World Cup: Namibia vs Netherlands (Game 1) Feb 10 $25 +$13 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China BUY Hong Kong, China 96¢ $501 1h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China BUY Hong Kong, China 89¢ $100 1h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China SELL Hong Kong, China 16¢ $4 2d
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China BUY Hong Kong, China 34¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 75¢ $101 8d
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs China BUY Nepal 92¢ $100 21d
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs China BUY Nepal 89¢ $100 21d
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs China BUY Nepal 71¢ $101 21d
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs China BUY Nepal 91¢ $100 21d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants SELL Rajasthan Royals 100¢ $506 32d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants BUY Rajasthan Royals 99¢ $500 32d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 34d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 58¢ $51 39d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $200 43d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings SELL Gujarat Titans 100¢ $232 48d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings BUY Gujarat Titans 93¢ $100 48d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings BUY Gujarat Titans 80¢ $101 48d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings SELL Punjab Kings 16¢ $62 48d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings BUY Punjab Kings 25¢ $102 48d
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: United Arab Emirates vs Oman SELL United Arab Emirates 100¢ $211 49d
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: United Arab Emirates vs Oman BUY United Arab Emirates 95¢ $200 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down $1 50d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals BUY Rajasthan Royals 28¢ $1 50d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 48¢ $21 52d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 22¢ $10 52d
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $10 59d
Pakistan Super League: Lahore Qalandars vs Rawalpindi Pindiz BUY Rawalpindi Pindiz $1 63d
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co BUY Yes 89¢ $100 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $614.73 · official $614.73 (match) · 87 history records