trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | Jun 14 | $55 | −$14 | -26% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $101 | +$55 | +55% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 | Jun 12 | $40 | +$17 | +42% |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 | Jun 11 | $50 | +$5 | +10% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? | Jun 11 | $27 | +$23 | +86% |
| Penguin listed on Binance by March 31? | Apr 08 | $10 | +$3 | +27% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET | Feb 17 | $20 | −$6 | -30% |
| Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-01-20? | Jan 20 | $28 | −$28 | -100% |
| Will the next UK election be called by December 31? | Jan 17 | $10 | $0 | +4% |
| Up Only podcast released by November 30? | Jan 17 | $10 | +$12 | +119% |
| Is Earth flat? | Nov 30 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bills vs. Dolphins | Nov 09 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Nov 09 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Wake Forest vs. Virginia | Nov 09 | $30 | +$61 | +203% |
| Spread: James Madison (-13.5) | Nov 08 | $45 | −$45 | -100% |
| Jaguars vs. Texans | Nov 08 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-10-29? | Oct 30 | $4 | +$5 | +128% |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Oct 29 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025? | Oct 29 | $10 | −$7 | -74% |
| Prince Andrew loses Duke of York title by December 31? | Oct 19 | $20 | +$1 | +5% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +11.0% | +0.5% | 67% | 50% | +16.8% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +11.0% | +0.5% | 67% | 50% | +16.8% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +13.3% | +2.5% | 71% | 57% | +16.7% |
| all | 21 | -12.0% | -20.4% | 48% | 33% | -18.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -20.4% | 33% | -18.3% |
| 10% | -28.0% | 33% | -26.1% |
| 15% | -35.0% | 29% | -33.2% |
| 20% | -41.3% | 24% | -39.8% |