Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:03:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c7c…ed4b sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$44 (-6%) realized −$32 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%9W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$54
sports 34% +$16
world 3% −$21
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -12.1% -20.5% 36% 36% -18.1%
≤30d 25 -12.1% -20.5% 36% 36% -18.1%
≤90d 25 -12.1% -20.5% 36% 36% -18.1%
all 25 -12.1% -20.5% 36% 36% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 36% -18.1%
10% -28.1% 36% -25.9%
15% -35.0% 36% -33.1%
20% -41.4% 24% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$21 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses9 / 16
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions12
Markets (closed)25 / 37
History coverage3d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 45¢ $60 $49 −$11 (-18%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Hanwha Eagles 53¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Samsung Lions 65¢ 68¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Doosan Bears 40¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Lotte Giants 55¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers LG Twins 62¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 −$17 -82%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $5 +$4 +79%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $32 +$15 +49%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 +$13 +42%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $53 +$114 +214%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $53 −$40 -76%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$112 +526%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes $15 6h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $4 6h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $31 6h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes $15 6h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 6h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $15 6h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 6h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 9h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 10h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 10h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 53¢ $3 11h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 55¢ $2 11h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 65¢ $2 11h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 40¢ $2 11h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 62¢ $2 11h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 19h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 26h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 28h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 50¢ $5 30h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 48¢ $5 31h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 69¢ $5 31h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 55¢ $5 31h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 57¢ $5 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $31 41h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.01 · official $189.01 (match) · 52 history records