Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3C 0x3c7f…4c60 sports 1092 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$751 (+2%) realized +$796 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%576W / 507L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Fees−$346est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days−$266
14 days+$54
30 days−$1,497
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$851
other 19% −$408
world 0% +$6
finance 0% +$20
weather 0% −$29
culture 0% −$9
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -16.1% -24.1% 40% 39% -18.7%
≤30d 198 -23.4% -30.7% 38% 34% -28.1%
≤90d 1083 -3.3% -12.5% 53% 50% -8.1%
all 1083 -3.3% -12.5% 53% 50% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 50% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 45% -16.9%
15% -28.5% 40% -25.0%
20% -35.5% 35% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$24 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized+$796
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses576 / 507
Est. fees paid−$346
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1083 / 1092
History coverage82d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1083 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 31¢ 33¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Gonzalo Villanueva 53¢ 55¢ $38 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku Martyna Kubka 51¢ 50¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-8%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 14¢ $63 $18 −$45 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $50 +$15 +31%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $25 +$34 +134%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $51 +$13 +26%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti Jun 18 $18 −$17 -98%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $18 −$17 -98%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 18 $17 −$16 -98%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $23 −$22 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $35 +$36 +105%
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $24 −$23 -98%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $49 +$34 +70%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $40 +$33 +83%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $51 +$30 +60%
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery Jun 17 $82 +$4 +5%
Alexander Zverev vs. Yannick Hanfmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $48 +$64 +134%
Simakin vs. Vasami: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $25 +$34 +134%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $51 +$29 +57%
Petr Bar Biryukov vs. Stefano Travaglia: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $47 +$34 +73%
Tomic vs. Gannon: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $10 +$11 +109%
Bernard Tomic vs. Conor Gannon: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$26 +253%
Florian Broska vs. Lukas Neumayer: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $9 +$22 +228%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $50 +$17 +35%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $18 +$63 +344%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $30 +$33 +109%
Carlos Maria Zarate vs. Juan Sebastian Gomez: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$17 +169%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $76 +$43 +57%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $31 +$31 +101%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $18 +$31 +172%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $64 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Martyna Kubka 51¢ $33 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Martyna Kubka 49¢ $4 2h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 64¢ $51 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. South BUY 23¢ $28 8h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti BUY Gerard Campana Lee 34¢ $18 14h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 35¢ $18 14h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 53¢ $39 14h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche BUY Marco Cecchinato 36¢ $17 14h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 33¢ $17 14h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 42¢ $25 14h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 38¢ $23 14h
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 43¢ $24 24h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 79¢ $51 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $35 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY 27¢ $13 27h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery SELL Ayla Aksu 50¢ $62 33h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery BUY Ayla Aksu 51¢ $65 34h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery SELL Sachia Vickery 49¢ $25 34h
Alexander Zverev vs. Yannick Hanfmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 30¢ $10 34h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery BUY Sachia Vickery 33¢ $17 36h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 47¢ $34 37h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 62¢ $51 37h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton BUY Hynek Barton 37¢ $21 37h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 54¢ $40 37h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 58¢ $49 37h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 76¢ $50 37h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $48 46h
Bernard Tomic vs. Conor Gannon: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 29¢ $4 2d
Petr Bar Biryukov vs. Stefano Travaglia: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 31¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.18 · official $248.88 · 3071 history records