Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:58:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3c82…5c20
crypto · 25 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$5 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$137
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Open positions9
Markets (closed)16 / 25
History coverage18d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 9 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$13
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $29 $32 +$4 (+12%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? No 94¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 88¢ 95¢ $18 $19 +$2 (+9%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 85¢ 87¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 13? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Yes 29¢ 31¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 92¢ 10¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-89%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? No 88¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Jun 13 $10 $0 -3%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 +$9 +41%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $33 −$1 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$4 +58%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $384 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $251 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June? Jun 02 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 31 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 82% −$3
other 14% +$9
politics 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 36m
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 17¢ $2 48m
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House SELL Yes 34¢ $3 49m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $30 57m
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 10h
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 10h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 10h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 10h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 65¢ $32 16h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 66¢ $33 19h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 38h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 38h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 38h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 38h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 38h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? SELL No 98¢ $10 41h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House SELL No 64¢ $6 2d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY No 56¢ $6 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 10? BUY No 96¢ $14 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 10? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 85¢ $9 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? BUY No 92¢ $9 3d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL No 56¢ $6 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? BUY No 95¢ $10 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +10.5% -0.0% 50% 20% -7.3%
≤30d 16 +2.1% -7.7% 62% 19% -8.9%
≤90d 16 +2.1% -7.7% 62% 19% -8.9%
all 16 +2.1% -7.7% 62% 19% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 19% -8.9%
10% -16.5% 12% -17.6%
15% -24.6% 12% -25.6%
20% -32.0% 6% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.48 · official $137.48 (match) · 64 history records