Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:35:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c84…cc10 politics 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%4W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% $0
other 29% $0
sports 10% $0
world 9% −$1
economics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 23% 0% -9.6%
all 20 -0.0% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses4 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage122d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $230 −$1 -1%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $115 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $115 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $115 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $115 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 13 $115 $0 +0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $115 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $116 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $116 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 11 $116 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $116 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $116 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 22 $116 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $116 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 14 $116 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 11 $116 $0 +0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 08 $116 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 06 $116 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 04 $116 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $116 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $113 1h
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $114 15h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $114 11d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $115 11d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $115 20d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $115 21d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $115 29d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $115 29d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $115 31d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $115 32d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $115 36d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $115 37d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $115 45d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $115 45d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $116 63d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $116 63d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $116 66d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $116 67d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 100¢ $116 69d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 100¢ $116 69d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $116 72d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $116 73d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $116 77d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $116 78d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $116 88d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 89d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 89d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $116 94d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $116 95d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $116 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records