Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:18:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3C 0x3c86…fd36 crypto 230 markets active 2h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$57 (+1%) realized +$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate94%208W / 13L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$76
14 days+$49
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$10
other 10% −$13
weather 5% +$1
tech 3% +$7
sports 2% +$12
economics 2% −$1
world 1% +$64
finance 0% −$5
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +26.4% +14.4% 100% 9% +8.2%
≤30d 70 +1.9% -7.8% 94% 7% -6.7%
≤90d 146 -2.7% -11.9% 93% 5% -8.7%
all 221 -0.8% -10.2% 94% 8% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 8% -8.7%
10% -18.8% 2% -17.4%
15% -26.7% 1% -25.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses208 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)221 / 230
History coverage204d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 97¢ 95¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 84¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 50¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $26 +$74 +285%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Brazil Jun 11 $3 +$1 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 05 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? Jun 04 $5 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 2? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 01 $40 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $30 $0 +1%
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 29? May 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 28? May 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 28? May 29 $2 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $90 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 7d
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $6 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 9d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 94¢ $10 11d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 50¢ $1 11d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 88¢ $10 11d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Brazil BUY Brazil 67¢ $3 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 13d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $5 13d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 7? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.69 · official $169.70 (match) · 470 history records