Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:13:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3C 0x3c8b…a956 crypto 1988 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,214 (+5%) realized +$1,214 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate74%1507W / 528L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day78.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$423
7 days+$358
14 days+$1,514
30 days+$2,486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,277
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 834 -22.5% -29.9% 54% 33% -6.1%
≤30d 2035 +4.7% -5.3% 74% 47% +0.4%
≤90d 2035 +4.7% -5.3% 74% 47% +0.4%
all 2035 +4.7% -5.3% 74% 47% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 47% +0.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 33% -9.2%
15% -22.6% 23% -18.0%
20% -30.2% 16% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,214
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses1507 / 528
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2035 / 1988
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day78.6
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2035 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$5 +330%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $13 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $14 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $19 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $12 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $19 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $16 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $13 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records