Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3c8d…68b1 sports 257 markets active 17h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+3%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%132W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$6
14 days+$27
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$2
other 17% +$13
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 50% -0.6%
≤30d 58 +13.2% +2.4% 55% 55% +6.9%
≤90d 241 +1.4% -8.3% 51% 51% -5.4%
all 255 +1.9% -7.8% 52% 51% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 51% -7.5%
10% -16.6% 49% -16.4%
15% -24.7% 47% -24.4%
20% -32.1% 41% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses132 / 123
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)255 / 257
History coverage114d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 63¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Over 57¢ 50¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $2 +$3 +125%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm Jun 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $5 +$5 +119%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Daria Snigur Jun 20 $3 +$2 +57%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +73%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $4 +$1 +21%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 19 $2 +$3 +114%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 19 $2 +$3 +172%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +105%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $3 +$2 +62%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 +$6 +129%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $6 +$4 +67%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $5 +$5 +119%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $6 +$4 +67%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $2 +$3 +124%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $2 +$3 +124%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +109%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $3 +$2 +93%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $5 +$10 +180%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $3 +$2 +73%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $3 +$2 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $2 +$3 +109%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $2 +$3 +140%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 02 $2 +$2 +83%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Adam Walton May 29 $5 +$5 +86%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $3 +$2 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 63¢ $3 17h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 23h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm BUY Abedallah Shelbayh 55¢ $3 23h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 41¢ $2 24h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 37h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 37h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Daria Snigur BUY Daria Snigur 63¢ $3 47h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 41¢ $2 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $2 2d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 82¢ $4 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 3d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $2 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $2 3d
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 61¢ $3 3d
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 54¢ $2 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $2 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $2 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 5d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $3 5d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 6d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $3 6d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $3 6d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 6d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 41¢ $2 7d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 41¢ $2 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $2 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $3 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.62 · official $10.62 (match) · 562 history records