Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:25:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3C 0x3c91…b4d2 sports 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$848 (-3%) realized −$1,169 · open −$98
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%99W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$352est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$421
7 days+$154
14 days−$2,122
30 days−$1,169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$825
world 3% −$509
other 2% +$165
politics 1% −$151
crypto 0% +$54
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +6.4% -3.8% 60% 57% -5.7%
≤30d 185 +0.8% -8.8% 54% 53% -13.6%
≤90d 185 +0.8% -8.8% 54% 53% -13.6%
all 185 +0.8% -8.8% 54% 53% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 53% -13.6%
10% -17.6% 52% -21.9%
15% -25.5% 49% -29.5%
20% -32.8% 45% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$144 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$255
Realized−$1,169
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses99 / 86
Est. fees paid−$352
Open positions4
Markets (closed)185 / 189
History coverage29d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 68¢ 92¢ $120 $162 +$42 (+35%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 69¢ 73¢ $68 $72 +$4 (+6%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ $145 $0 −$145 (-100%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 51¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Chicago White Sox 33¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 53¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 38¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Knicks 44¢ $145 $0 −$145 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 52¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Victoria Mboko 46¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 59¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Under 50¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Philadelphia Phillies 51¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Nikola Bartunkova 32¢ $147 $0 −$147 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays Los Angeles Angels 60¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 59¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 51¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 60¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Under 48¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 46¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 37¢ $151 $0 −$151 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $146 +$90 +62%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $146 +$5 +4%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $9 +$5 +58%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $146 +$79 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $75 −$75 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $146 +$111 +76%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $146 +$107 +73%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $112 +$72 +65%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $16 +$25 +152%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $69 +$32 +46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $145 +$76 +52%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $146 −$144 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $147 +$174 +119%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $146 −$144 -99%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 11 $146 +$107 +73%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $147 −$144 -98%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $150 −$147 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $73 −$72 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $146 +$137 +93%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $146 −$144 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $146 −$144 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $147 −$144 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 09 $14 −$14 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $146 +$107 +73%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $147 +$161 +109%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $76 +$90 +118%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 08 $146 −$144 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $146 +$107 +73%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 08 $147 −$145 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $146 +$131 +90%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $146 +$111 +76%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $146 +$126 +86%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $147 +$154 +105%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $146 −$144 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $118 +$70 +59%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $146 +$131 +90%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $147 +$167 +114%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $147 −$144 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $146 −$144 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $147 +$189 +129%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $147 +$189 +129%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $146 +$137 +93%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $146 −$144 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $147 −$144 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $44 −$44 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $57 −$57 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 06 $46 −$46 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 06 $80 −$80 -100%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 06 $83 −$83 -100%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Dynamo Esports (BO3) - VCL North Americ Jun 06 $90 −$90 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 68¢ $2 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 68¢ $120 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $147 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $146 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 60¢ $94 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $146 5h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 61¢ $7 7h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 68¢ $2 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $146 8h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 52¢ $26 22h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $50 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 56¢ $146 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $146 27h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $112 29h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $16 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $146 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 45¢ $147 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 53¢ $146 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Aurora Gaming 65¢ $145 3d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY LOUD 57¢ $146 4d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Victoria Mboko 46¢ $147 4d
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Nikola Bartunkova 32¢ $150 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 38¢ $73 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ $146 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 51¢ $146 5d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 51¢ $146 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $147 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $14 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 68¢ $69 5d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 59¢ $146 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.42 · official $255.42 (match) · 443 history records