Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3c92…c646 sports 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$542 (-2%) realized −$481 · open −$61
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%70W / 98L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$252est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$799
7 days+$655
14 days+$541
30 days+$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$635
other 19% −$90
crypto 17% +$288
world 0% +$12
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -2.2% -11.5% 54% 54% -4.1%
≤30d 122 -14.2% -22.4% 45% 41% -8.8%
≤90d 139 -13.9% -22.1% 45% 41% -8.2%
all 168 -16.5% -24.4% 42% 39% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 39% -10.5%
10% -31.6% 33% -19.0%
15% -38.3% 26% -26.9%
20% -44.3% 20% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$67 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$481
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses70 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$252
Open positions2
Markets (closed)168 / 171
History coverage244d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 69¢ 50¢ $200 $145 −$55 (-28%)
SBF released from custody in 2026? Yes $20 $14 −$6 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$45 +149%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 17 $1,062 −$26 -2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $202 +$80 +40%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,184 +$305 +26%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 AND W Jun 16 $790 +$395 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $793 −$5 -1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,190 −$885 -74%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $31 −$27 -89%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 AN Jun 15 $504 +$182 +36%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $6 +$5 +89%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $508 +$628 +124%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $409 −$200 -49%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $202 −$86 -43%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $203 +$225 +111%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,072 +$244 +23%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $307 +$53 +17%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 +$80 +79%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $505 −$500 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $303 +$34 +11%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $203 +$130 +64%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 105.5 Jun 11 $1,177 +$409 +35%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $34 +$16 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $303 −$254 -84%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 09 $515 −$6 -1%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $101 +$15 +15%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $1,404 +$54 +4%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $1,153 +$281 +24%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $1,003 +$72 +7%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $96 +$13 +14%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $103 −$7 -7%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $202 +$61 +30%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $61 −$42 -70%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $301 −$255 -85%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $286 +$15 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 07 $11 +$29 +275%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $130 +$127 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 06 $101 +$29 +29%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $506 −$300 -59%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $81 −$23 -28%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $21 −$15 -75%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $112 −$10 -9%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $102 −$89 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 92¢ $75 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $30 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $202 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 12¢ $830 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 12¢ $93 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 12¢ $50 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 12¢ $49 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $202 17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,062 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1,184 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 AND W BUY 66¢ $790 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $789 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $793 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 23¢ $304 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $1,154 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $36 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports $3 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 27¢ $31 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 26¢ $31 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 23¢ $102 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 53¢ $10 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 27¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 56¢ $101 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 AN BUY 73¢ $504 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 44¢ $508 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 26¢ $102 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 29¢ $102 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 24¢ $195 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 24¢ $205 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.66 · official $158.69 (match) · 352 history records