Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:12:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3C 0x3c93…1bfc crypto 732 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$1,126 (-3%) realized −$464 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate60%716W / 484L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day215.9pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$835now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,825
7 days−$1,102
14 days−$464
30 days−$464
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$1,459
other 5% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-43.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 789 -58.6% -62.5% 40% 1% -13.8%
≤30d 1200 -37.5% -43.4% 60% 1% -10.6%
≤90d 1200 -37.5% -43.4% 60% 1% -10.6%
all 1200 -37.5% -43.4% 60% 1% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover215.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.4% 1% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -48.9% 0% -19.1%
15% -53.8% 0% -27.0%
20% -58.3% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -78% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$835
Realized−$464
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses716 / 484
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1200 / 732
History coverage13d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day215.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 94¢ 100¢ $270 $285 +$15 (+6%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 95¢ 100¢ $122 $128 +$6 (+5%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 93¢ 100¢ $120 $127 +$8 (+6%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Up 97¢ 100¢ $93 $96 +$3 (+3%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Up 95¢ 100¢ $65 $69 +$3 (+5%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5PM ET Down 98¢ 100¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+3%)
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 5PM ET Down 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 96¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8PM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 12AM ET Down 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 5PM ET Down 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Up 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 96¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 95¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 5PM ET Up 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 94¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 6AM ET Up 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 12AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -67%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 5PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 9PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 2, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 3, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 3, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 1, 8AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 2, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 2, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 3, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
HYPE Up or Down - May 1, 3AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 2, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $32 17m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 19m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 26m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $13 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $31 28m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $32 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $32 51m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $835.11 · official $830.31 (match) · 3500 history records