Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:34:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3C 0x3c94…c305 crypto 1111 markets active 5h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$138 (-1%) realized −$135 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%436W / 657L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$28
14 days+$63
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$509
other 1% −$12
sports 1% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +9.7% -0.7% 58% 58% +6.4%
≤30d 177 -4.0% -13.2% 38% 37% -7.6%
≤90d 1093 -13.9% -22.1% 40% 36% -14.4%
all 1093 -13.9% -22.1% 40% 36% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.1% 36% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -29.5% 30% -22.6%
15% -36.3% 26% -30.1%
20% -42.6% 20% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$135
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses436 / 657
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions18
Markets (closed)1093 / 1111
History coverage85d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 1093 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 445 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$4 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$5 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$6 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$10 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$7 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +16%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$6 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$10 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$4 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.15 · official $41.15 (match) · 2898 history records