Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:47:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3c95…8188
weather · 188 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$568 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$567 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$567
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses46 / 137
Open positions5
Markets (closed)183 / 188
History coverage20d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day84.0
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 183 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$479
14 days+$391
30 days+$567
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $12 −$5 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 −$7 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$30 +148%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $120 +$442 +368%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 12 $10 +$28 +279%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $0 $0 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $19 −$18 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $10 −$3 -33%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $31 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 98°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 102-103°F on Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 10? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 12 $356 −$294 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 11? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 10? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 12 $15 −$7 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 10? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $82 +$159 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$3 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 11 $274 +$108 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$4 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $387 +$88 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 10? Jun 11 $35 +$9 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 10 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $13 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 9? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 9? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 9? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 9? Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 10 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $94 +$108 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 09 $16 −$6 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$560
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 100¢ $562 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL Yes 5¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 51¢ $103 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 4¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 4¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 30¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju SELL Yes 5¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 7¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 12¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 12¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 15¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 20¢ $9 9h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 5¢ $12 10h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -15.6% -23.6% 33% 26% +5.3%
≤30d 183 -18.3% -26.0% 25% 21% -2.4%
≤90d 183 -18.3% -26.0% 25% 21% -2.4%
all 183 -18.3% -26.0% 25% 21% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover84.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.0% 21% -2.4%
10% ← realistic here -33.1% 17% -11.7%
15% -39.6% 15% -20.2%
20% -45.5% 14% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.98 (match) · 1754 history records