Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:42:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3c96…f26a sports 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 516d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,557 (+8%) realized +$2,523 · open +$34
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate69%67W / 30L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$142
14 days+$142
30 days+$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$190
world 21% +$467
other 16% +$147
sports 12% +$962
crypto 6% +$597
tech 5% +$589
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +4.8% -5.2% 53% 53% -1.0%
≤30d 30 +4.8% -5.2% 53% 53% -1.0%
≤90d 30 +4.8% -5.2% 53% 53% -1.0%
all 97 +4.1% -5.8% 69% 49% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 49% -2.1%
10% -14.8% 39% -11.5%
15% -23.0% 31% -20.0%
20% -30.6% 22% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$132 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

516d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized+$2,523
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses67 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions5
Markets (closed)97 / 102
History coverage516d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $50 $87 +$37 (+75%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 36¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $152 +$107 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$67 -66%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$77 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 +$29 +60%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $67 +$33 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $33 +$17 +52%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $71 −$69 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $58 +$46 +79%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$33 +109%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $71 +$46 +65%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $71 −$15 -22%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 +$30 +40%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$12 +24%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$2 -5%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $42 +$29 +68%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 +$26 +129%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $103 −$72 -70%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$76 +250%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$30 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 +$44 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $23 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $132 +$157 +119%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $108 −$58 -54%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $76 −$75 -98%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $31 −$31 -100%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $80 −$68 -85%
Will Vitality win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? Sep 07 $79 −$79 -100%
Will RFK Jr. find the cause of Autism before November? Sep 07 $69 +$10 +15%
BLAST Open: FaZe vs. G2 Sep 05 $540 +$460 +85%
BLAST Open: Spirit vs. G2 Sep 02 $143 +$408 +285%
EWC Cs2: The MongolZ vs. Vitality Aug 23 $34 −$26 -76%
Will Spirit win the BLAST Bounty 2025 Season tournament? Aug 17 $24 +$8 +35%
Will The MongolZ win the BLAST Bounty 2025 Season tournament? Aug 17 $148 +$52 +35%
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Aug 17 $50 −$42 -83%
Doge ETF approved by July 31? Aug 01 $432 +$183 +42%
US forces in Iran before August? Jul 20 $2,626 +$211 +8%
Ripple ETF approved by July 31? Jul 12 $306 +$121 +40%
Solana ETF approved by July 31? Jul 10 $73 −$73 -100%
Trump x Epstein files made public in June? Jul 04 $1,880 +$114 +6%
Will US leave NATO by June 30? Jul 04 $1,281 +$219 +17%
Will Vitality win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament Jun 23 $379 +$26 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June? Jun 22 $870 +$10 +1%
Will MOUZ win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? Jun 22 $23 +$5 +23%
BLAST.tv Austin Major: paiN vs. The MongolZ Jun 22 $168 +$75 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $15 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $31 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 13h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 58¢ $51 13h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 58¢ $101 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $3 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 22¢ $21 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $50 23h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $71 27h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 73¢ $31 27h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 73¢ $13 27h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 28h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $35 28h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $30 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 66¢ $23 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 66¢ $10 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 35h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 39h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $101 41h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $58 44h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $30 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $21 2d
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 60¢ $40 2d
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 60¢ $30 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $35 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.68 · official $279.36 (match) · 407 history records