Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c96…b3af other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,938 (-72%) realized −$2,904 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$2,224
crypto 18% −$709
sports 3% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -35.3% -41.4% 30% 30% -79.3%
≤30d 10 -35.3% -41.4% 30% 30% -79.3%
≤90d 10 -35.3% -41.4% 30% 30% -79.3%
all 10 -35.3% -41.4% 30% 30% -79.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.4% 30% -79.3%
10% -47.0% 30% -81.2%
15% -52.2% 30% -83.1%
20% -56.8% 20% -84.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -91% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -91% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$454 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$2,904
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage6d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Yes 18¢ 26¢ $25 $37 +$12 (+46%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $182 −$180 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $627 −$439 -70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,146 −$1,125 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $720 −$709 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $704 −$700 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$17 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 +$14 +197%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $489 +$203 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 9¢ $36 37m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 37m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 37m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $182 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $182 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $627 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $16 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,130 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $720 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $603 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $692 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $489 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.97 · official $155.97 (match) · 21 history records