Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:02:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c99…3ebd crypto 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate94%103W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$19
weather 21% +$2
other 20% −$3
economics 4% $0
world 3% +$1
tech 1% +$2
finance 1% $0
politics 0% $0
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.6% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 29 -20.3% -27.9% 79% 0% -13.9%
≤90d 86 -5.8% -14.7% 93% 3% -10.5%
all 109 -2.2% -11.6% 94% 6% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 6% -10.1%
10% -20.0% 3% -18.7%
15% -27.7% 2% -26.5%
20% -34.8% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses103 / 6
Open positions10
Markets (closed)109 / 119
History coverage142d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 91¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 68¢ 46¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $70 +$1 +1%
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $21 −$19 -95%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 3? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 03 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 22? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 22? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 22? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 21? May 22 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or below on May 21? May 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 21? May 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on May 15? May 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 15? May 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 15? May 18 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 13? May 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 12? May 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 10? May 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 49°F or below on May 11? May 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 42°F or higher on May 8? May 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 08 $35 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 37°F or below on April 29? May 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 06 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $70 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 5d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $5 11d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 96¢ $5 14d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $5 15d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 91¢ $10 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? BUY No 19¢ $21 18d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $70 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 28d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.40 · official $109.40 (match) · 240 history records