trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 2 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 27 | -5.7% | -14.6% | 7% | 0% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.6% | 0% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -22.8% | 0% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -30.3% | 0% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -37.1% | 0% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $72 | $72 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 11¢ | $14 | $17 | +$3 (+21%) |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-6%) |
| Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $1 | $0 | −$0 (-28%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 13 | $71 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 10 | $156 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Feb 16 | $181 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Feb 01 | $92 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jan 26 | $369 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Jan 24 | $185 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Jan 20 | $89 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jan 17 | $90 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jan 15 | $2 | $0 | -17% |
| Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jan 14 | $90 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 10? | Jan 11 | $92 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jan 09 | $91 | $0 | -0% |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jan 07 | $93 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Jan 01 | $91 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Dec 29 | $92 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Dec 26 | $92 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 22 | $94 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Dec 18 | $90 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 09 | $97 | −$3 | -3% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? | Dec 05 | $94 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Nov 23 | $96 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Nov 21 | $95 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Nov 20 | $96 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 | Nov 20 | $1 | $0 | -33% |
| Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Nov 18 | $96 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Nov 16 | $99 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Nov 09 | $97 | $0 | -0% |