Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:29:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c9d…acf3 other 245 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 234L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$20
14 days−$31
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$42
sports 21% −$16
culture 7% −$9
crypto 7% −$6
politics 7% −$5
economics 6% −$3
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 80 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 244 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)244 / 245
History coverage127d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $161 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $450 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $317 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $216 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 16 $346 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $400 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $165 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $720 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $143 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $121 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $737 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $379 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $407 −$3 -1%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $102 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $392 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $415 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $127 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $238 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $491 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $124 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $212 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $99 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $558 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $555 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $266 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $442 −$2 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $118 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $247 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $187 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $671 −$2 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $140 −$1 -1%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $512 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $391 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $81 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $45 51m
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $45 1h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 2h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $45 8h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $45 10h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $45 14h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $45 15h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $45 16h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $45 18h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $45 20h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $45 22h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $45 23h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $45 24h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $45 25h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $45 26h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $45 29h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 32h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 34h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 38h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 39h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 41h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 42h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $46 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.68 · official $44.68 (match) · 1333 history records