trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | No | 43¢ | 18¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-58%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 12 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 10 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? | Jan 31 | $9 | −$5 | -54% |
| Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? | Jan 31 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 31 | $3 | −$2 | -88% |
| Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? | Nov 26 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 26 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? | Nov 25 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump deport less than 250,000? | Nov 19 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? | Oct 11 | $6 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Sep 27 | $1 | $0 | -5% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | Sep 27 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | Sep 15 | $25 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in August? | Sep 02 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4? | Aug 11 | $16 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? | Jul 02 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Jul 02 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 24 | $17 | $0 | +1% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 | Apr 03 | $17 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 02 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 31 | $15 | +$2 | +13% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 2 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 21 | -11.1% | -19.6% | 38% | 5% | -13.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.6% | 5% | -13.2% |
| 10% | -27.3% | 0% | -21.5% |
| 15% | -34.3% | 0% | -29.1% |
| 20% | -40.7% | 0% | -36.0% |