Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:15:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3ca4…b014 crypto 239 markets active 5d ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,619 (-18%) realized −$2,619 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%63W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$548
14 days−$548
30 days−$548
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,883
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -15.5% -23.6% 45% 45% -36.2%
≤30d 20 -15.5% -23.6% 45% 45% -36.2%
≤90d 43 -43.3% -48.7% 28% 28% -50.0%
all 239 -22.4% -29.8% 26% 26% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.8% 26% -28.3%
10% -36.5% 25% -35.2%
15% -42.6% 23% -41.4%
20% -48.3% 20% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$55 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,619
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses63 / 176
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 239
History coverage120d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions (143 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $280 −$280 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $102 −$98 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $205 −$199 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $156 +$140 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$33 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$115 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$48 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$47 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$128 +244%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Apr 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 11 $8 +$7 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 11 $17 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 04 $36 −$34 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 04 $118 −$115 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Apr 04 $146 −$139 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 02 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 02 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 02 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 02 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 02 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 02 $12 −$11 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 02 $100 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 31 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 31 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 31 $38 −$36 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 31 $92 −$87 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Mar 31 $80 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Mar 31 $90 +$188 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Mar 31 $139 +$69 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Mar 14 $8 −$7 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2234 history records