Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3ca5…caa8 crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized +$270 · open −$280
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$416per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$874now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$533
other 34% −$266
sports 22% +$303
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -19.3% -27.0% 38% 38% -17.1%
≤30d 8 -19.3% -27.0% 38% 38% -17.1%
≤90d 8 -19.3% -27.0% 38% 38% -17.1%
all 8 -19.3% -27.0% 38% 38% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.0% 38% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -34.0% 25% -25.1%
15% -40.3% 25% -32.3%
20% -46.2% 12% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$155 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$874
Realized+$270
Unrealized−$280
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$416
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 52¢ $1,154 $874 −$280 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $807 +$303 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $1,035 −$262 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $110 +$242 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $103 +$14 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,165 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,110 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $807 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 6¢ $117 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $874.29 · official $874.29 (match) · 26 history records