Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:16:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3ca5…85ed sports 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$72 (+1%) realized +$62 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%48W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$624now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$96
14 days+$96
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$403
other 8% −$144
culture 4% −$105
world 2% −$67
politics 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +119.9% +99.0% 60% 60% +40.2%
≤30d 6 +83.3% +65.8% 50% 50% +3.8%
≤90d 51 -26.3% -33.3% 31% 29% -41.8%
all 105 -1.6% -11.0% 46% 44% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 44% -8.9%
10% -19.5% 42% -17.6%
15% -27.3% 41% -25.6%
20% -34.4% 40% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$53 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$624
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses48 / 57
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions6
Markets (closed)105 / 111
History coverage198d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $463 $473 +$10 (+2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 64¢ 82¢ $64 $82 +$18 (+27%)
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $31 $39 +$8 (+27%)
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $18 $16 −$2 (-11%)
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $17 $14 −$3 (-17%)
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? Yes 11¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$23 +118%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $21 +$104 +510%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $34 −$33 -99%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $71 −$37 -52%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $31 +$39 +123%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $62 −$62 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 11 $65 −$64 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Apr 15 $122 −$122 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 15 $102 −$102 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Apr 15 $106 −$106 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Apr 15 $70 −$17 -24%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 15 $104 −$47 -45%
Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Apr 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 05 $18 +$12 +64%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers Apr 05 $22 +$27 +123%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 05 $66 −$66 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 05 $43 +$55 +129%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Apr 05 $48 +$50 +105%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Apr 05 $100 +$97 +97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Apr 04 $31 +$25 +82%
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 04 $33 +$26 +79%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Apr 03 $112 +$104 +93%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros Apr 01 $11 −$11 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 01 $25 +$23 +90%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Apr 01 $102 +$95 +93%
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins Mar 30 $8 +$12 +138%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 29 $81 +$103 +127%
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Maryland Terrapins: O/U 140.5 Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Utah Valley Wolverines vs. Tarleton State Texans Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Rockets vs. Pistons Mar 29 $30 −$30 -100%
California Baptist Lancers vs. Southern Utah Thunderbirds: O/U 146.5 Mar 29 $53 −$53 -100%
Will UCLA win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5) Mar 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Wofford Terriers vs. UNCG Spartans: O/U 154.5 Mar 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Rockets vs. Pistons: O/U 217.5 Mar 29 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Retirement Plan win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Mar 29 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Team Melo win the 2026 NBA Rising Stars Championship? Mar 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? Mar 29 $90 −$90 -100%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 29 $101 −$101 -100%
California Baptist Lancers vs. Southern Utah Thunderbirds: O/U 145.5 Mar 29 $156 −$156 -100%
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-4.5) Mar 29 $156 −$156 -100%
Spread: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (-9.5) Mar 29 $212 −$212 -100%
Will Devon Witherspoon win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Mar 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 51¢ $34 46h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 26¢ $34 46h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $71 47h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 47h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $70 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes $27 13d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes $4 13d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes $206 20d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 57¢ $62 20d
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $65 43d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes $1 44d
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Detroit Tigers 48¢ $102 78d
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees $3 79d
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 100¢ $30 79d
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 60¢ $18 79d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers SELL Cincinnati Reds 100¢ $49 79d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) SELL New York Yankees 34¢ $4 79d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) SELL New York Yankees 44¢ $44 79d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) SELL New York Yankees 45¢ $4 79d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers BUY Cincinnati Reds 44¢ $22 80d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 56¢ $34 80d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 54¢ $11 80d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 61¢ $18 80d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 56¢ $36 80d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 93¢ $56 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $623.95 · official $623.25 (match) · 679 history records