Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:58:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3ca6…dcf7 politics 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%2W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$1
other 20% −$1
crypto 13% $0
culture 7% $0
tech 7% $0
sports 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 9% 0% -9.7%
all 15 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses2 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage114d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 23 $90 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $91 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $91 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $91 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $91 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $91 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $92 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $92 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $92 $0 +0%
Will Ethena dip to $0.00 in March? Mar 29 $92 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $92 $0 +0%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $92 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 06 $92 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $92 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $90 1h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $90 15h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $90 3d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $90 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $90 12d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $91 13d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $91 22d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $91 23d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $91 30d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $91 31d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $91 41d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $26 41d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $9 41d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $6 41d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $49 41d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $91 44d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $91 45d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $92 70d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $77 71d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $16 71d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $92 79d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $44 80d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $10 80d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $38 80d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 84d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $92 85d
Will Ethena dip to $0.00 in March? SELL No 100¢ $92 89d
Will Ethena dip to $0.00 in March? BUY No 100¢ $37 90d
Will Ethena dip to $0.00 in March? BUY No 100¢ $55 90d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $92 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records