Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:15:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3ca7…7caf crypto 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate80%53W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +0.3% -9.3% 80% 3% -9.7%
≤30d 66 +0.3% -9.3% 80% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 66 +0.3% -9.3% 80% 3% -9.7%
all 66 +0.3% -9.3% 80% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 3% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses53 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage4d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $50 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $84 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $84 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 28 $8 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $7 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $7 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $44 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $84 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $13 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $7 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $4 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records