Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:31:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3ca9…062d sports 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7,006 (-19%) realized −$7,084 · open +$78
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,518per market
Trades / day24.3pace
Fees−$591est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,678now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$12,186
crypto 22% +$1,321
other 8% −$878
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -12.9% -21.2% 29% 21% -39.1%
≤30d 14 -12.9% -21.2% 29% 21% -39.1%
≤90d 14 -12.9% -21.2% 29% 21% -39.1%
all 14 -12.9% -21.2% 29% 21% -39.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 21% -39.1%
10% -28.7% 21% -44.9%
15% ← realistic here -35.6% 21% -50.3%
20% -41.9% 21% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,911 vs −$1,947 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,678
Realized−$7,084
Unrealized+$78
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$591
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2,518
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 72¢ 76¢ $1,600 $1,678 +$78 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $1,024 −$902 -88%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3,548 −$2,347 -66%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,022 −$798 -78%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5,079 +$3,293 +65%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $12,315 −$10,174 -83%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3,058 −$1,972 -64%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $2,659 −$1,537 -58%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,600 +$2,748 +172%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $648 −$434 -67%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $515 −$467 -91%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $513 +$1,542 +300%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $720 −$489 -68%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2,835 +$62 +2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $616 −$348 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,613 9m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes $14 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes $59 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $300 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $901 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes $49 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over $224 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $1,022 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3,548 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $1,024 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 79¢ $8,373 19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 12¢ $887 20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 11¢ $627 20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 14¢ $626 20h
Netherlands leading at halftime? SELL Yes 13¢ $1,086 20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $101 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 10¢ $74 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 11¢ $236 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 11¢ $315 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 11¢ $498 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $3,028 23h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 23¢ $614 23h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 25¢ $2,045 23h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $3,058 23h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $9,083 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $5,079 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $4,348 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 24h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $8 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,677.78 · official $1,677.78 (match) · 59 history records