Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3C 0x3ca9…bbcd sports 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,469 (-6%) realized −$1,409 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%36W / 43L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$225est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$473now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$801
7 days−$564
14 days−$1,370
30 days−$2,866
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$3,260
other 20% +$685
world 1% −$239
crypto 1% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -8.1% -16.8% 48% 48% -17.3%
≤30d 65 -20.9% -28.5% 43% 43% -23.2%
≤90d 79 -15.5% -23.6% 46% 46% -20.6%
all 79 -15.5% -23.6% 46% 46% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 46% -20.6%
10% -30.9% 42% -28.2%
15% -37.6% 33% -35.2%
20% -43.7% 20% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$204 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$473
Realized−$1,409
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses36 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$225
Open positions5
Markets (closed)79 / 84
History coverage58d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $201 $178 −$23 (-11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $92 $99 +$7 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $130 $96 −$34 (-26%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $80 $55 −$25 (-32%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $44 +$14 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $581 +$149 +26%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $227 −$227 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,044 +$303 +29%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $239 −$239 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $421 −$421 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $117 +$101 +86%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $149 −$104 -69%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $303 −$303 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $211 −$211 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 16 $420 +$205 +49%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $88 +$211 +239%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $106 −$93 -88%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $233 −$196 -84%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $263 −$263 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $234 +$248 +106%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $129 +$69 +54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $316 −$212 -67%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $279 +$106 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $290 +$100 +34%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 14 $141 +$219 +155%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $432 +$182 +42%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 12 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $70 +$104 +149%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $525 −$525 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $141 +$169 +120%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $456 −$317 -69%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Richarlison be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 05 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Kamatamare Sanuki win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $183 +$91 +50%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $70 +$71 +102%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $148 +$101 +68%
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 2.5 May 31 $117 −$92 -79%
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: Both Teams to Score May 31 $234 −$169 -72%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $818 −$398 -49%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $586 −$586 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 31 $234 −$234 -100%
Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5) May 31 $178 +$88 +50%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $316 −$84 -26%
Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5) May 30 $815 +$277 +34%
Gamba Ōsaka vs. Tōkyō Verdy: Both Teams to Score May 30 $117 +$124 +106%
Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) May 29 $315 +$154 +49%
CA Tigre vs. Club Alianza Atlético: Both Teams to Score May 29 $179 −$179 -100%
Spread: Liaoning Tieren FC (-1.5) May 29 $1,046 +$237 +23%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 27 $1,122 +$416 +37%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 26 $316 −$316 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 26 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $27 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $58 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $581 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1,044 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $227 23h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $117 28h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $421 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $37 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL No 20¢ $46 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $151 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $149 44h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $53 44h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $420 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $303 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $211 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 6¢ $13 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 11¢ $37 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $106 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $233 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $35 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $53 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $37 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL No 88¢ $197 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $103 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $234 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $129 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $316 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $53 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $263 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $472.73 · official $472.73 (match) · 225 history records