Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:48:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3cab…db1d
sports · 72 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$104 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$102 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$103
Realized−$102
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses32 / 37
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions3
Markets (closed)69 / 72
History coverage14d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 3 History 69 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$197
14 days−$102
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 B8 41¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 FlyQuest 47¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 TYLOO 37¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 52¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 37¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? No 48¢ 0¢ $108 $0 −$108 (-100%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-03? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 FlyQuest 41¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Spirit 64¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 GamerLegion 45¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 32¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 16¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs magic 43¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 53¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Liquid 61¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Sinners 57¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $44 +$32 +73%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $106 −$105 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $50 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $47 −$46 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $19 +$24 +124%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $50 +$33 +67%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $36 +$59 +165%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $97 +$99 +102%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $24 +$22 +90%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 10 $24 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $35 +$62 +180%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $87 +$103 +118%
Will Azerbaijan vs. San Marino end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $59 +$49 +83%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $81 +$98 +121%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $57 −$56 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $53 +$55 +105%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$15 +146%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $19 +$33 +172%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $30 +$30 +97%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $25 +$29 +114%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $30 +$27 +90%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 05 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 05 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $56 +$30 +55%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $56 −$55 -99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $69 +$73 +105%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $61 +$35 +57%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $55 +$34 +62%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $59 +$36 +62%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $31 +$29 +93%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $53 −$52 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $44 +$44 +101%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $36 +$27 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 75% +$257
other 21% −$238
crypto 4% −$113
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $76 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 57¢ $44 5h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 64¢ $81 6h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 62¢ $25 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $50 6h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 23¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 10¢ $3 6h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $34 7h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 32¢ $19 10h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 44¢ $19 12h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $35 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 59¢ $50 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $36 27h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $195 27h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $46 31h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 38¢ $24 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 52¢ $25 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 52¢ $24 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 53¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $38 2d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 100¢ $191 3d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 35¢ $35 3d
Will Azerbaijan vs. San Marino end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 26¢ $17 3d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 55¢ $70 3d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 54¢ $59 3d
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 4d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 26¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 45¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +7.7% -2.5% 50% 50% +4.5%
≤30d 69 -7.8% -16.6% 46% 46% -12.9%
≤90d 69 -7.8% -16.6% 46% 46% -12.9%
all 69 -7.8% -16.6% 46% 46% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 46% -12.9%
10% -24.5% 46% -21.3%
15% -31.8% 46% -28.9%
20% -38.5% 46% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.83 · official $102.83 (match) · 123 history records