Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3cad…6fea crypto 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,181 (+7%) realized +$4,336 · open +$845
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate86%83W / 13L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$740per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$4,985now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$634
7 days+$903
14 days+$1,744
30 days+$3,219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$1,201
world 21% +$1,043
other 11% +$1,338
finance 8% +$983
politics 2% +$288
tech 1% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +21.5% +9.9% 100% 75% +12.6%
≤30d 50 +6.8% -3.4% 82% 40% -1.4%
≤90d 96 +5.6% -4.5% 86% 36% -4.3%
all 96 +5.6% -4.5% 86% 36% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 36% -4.3%
10% -13.6% 11% -13.5%
15% -22.0% 4% -21.8%
20% -29.6% 1% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$896) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$276 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$4,985
Realized+$4,336
Unrealized+$845
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses83 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)96 / 102
History coverage68d
Avg bet$740
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 78¢ 99¢ $1,561 $1,981 +$420 (+27%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 75¢ 86¢ $1,283 $1,471 +$188 (+15%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 84¢ 96¢ $504 $578 +$74 (+15%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 78¢ 90¢ $332 $385 +$52 (+16%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? No 76¢ 99¢ $289 $378 +$89 (+31%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 85¢ 96¢ $170 $193 +$23 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Jun 21 $224 +$79 +35%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? Jun 21 $336 +$60 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 21 $718 +$136 +19%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 21 $380 +$18 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 21 $744 +$342 +46%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 15 $652 +$148 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $631 +$120 +19%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 8-14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 13 $889 +$107 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 13 $1,724 +$269 +16%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 13 $1,800 +$147 +8%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Jun 13 $186 +$12 +7%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 13 $97 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 13 $759 +$177 +23%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 13 $415 +$72 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 13 $630 +$57 +9%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $241 −$39 -16%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 June 1-7? Jun 08 $475 +$25 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $305 +$12 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $857 −$128 -15%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 1-7? Jun 08 $258 +$42 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $278 +$22 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 June 1-7? Jun 08 $470 +$30 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 08 $145 −$53 -37%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 08 $318 +$87 +27%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 June 1-7? Jun 03 $627 −$249 -40%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $283 −$89 -31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $366 −$154 -42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $721 −$84 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $880 +$120 +14%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 01 $1,200 +$64 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $395 +$95 +24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $375 +$38 +10%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 01 $2,118 +$182 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,637 +$397 +24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,315 +$185 +14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $3,160 +$319 +10%
Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Horm Jun 01 $469 +$13 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 01 $1,490 +$111 +8%
Will Oman send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $809 +$34 +4%
Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 Jun 01 $320 +$4 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $276 +$15 +6%
Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8 $0 +1%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 29 $2,853 +$529 +18%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 29 $606 −$259 -43%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 29 $988 −$36 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? May 25 $131 +$69 +53%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 18-24? May 25 $276 +$24 +9%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 18-24? May 25 $411 +$89 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 18-24? May 25 $444 +$56 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $493 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? SELL No 98¢ $303 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL No 99¢ $396 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 95¢ $285 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 95¢ $568 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $20 3h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $398 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1,086 3h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY No 76¢ $165 5d
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY No 76¢ $63 5d
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY No 76¢ $62 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $273 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $11 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $36 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $164 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $164 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $60 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $1,993 8d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $803 8d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1,144 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $288 8d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? SELL No 99¢ $198 8d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $99 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $293 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $175 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $234 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $234 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $487 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $687 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 78¢ $61 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,984.81 · official $4,984.81 (match) · 607 history records