Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:20:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cae…9060 finance 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,719 (-60%) realized −$110 · open −$1,609
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%44W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$636now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% −$1,609
finance 10% −$23
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +10.6% +0.1% 25% 25% -0.2%
≤30d 138 +0.6% -9.0% 27% 26% -15.0%
≤90d 149 -0.8% -10.2% 30% 24% -17.0%
all 149 -0.8% -10.2% 30% 24% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 24% -17.0%
10% -18.8% 21% -25.0%
15% -26.7% 21% -32.2%
20% -33.8% 20% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$636
Realized−$110
Unrealized−$1,609
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses44 / 105
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)149 / 151
History coverage39d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $2,035 $478 −$1,557 (-77%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 1¢ 1¢ $210 $158 −$52 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$4 +341%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$2 +224%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $71 on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$6 +545%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$8 +778%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$6 +304%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +113%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +92%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$3 +288%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$5 +469%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +122%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$11 +1106%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 1¢ $104 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 1¢ $114 8h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $547 9h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 10¢ $159 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 22¢ $1 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $71 on June 18? BUY No 7¢ $1 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 18? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 18? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 18? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 18? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 18? BUY No 37¢ $1 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $71 on June 18? BUY No 7¢ $1 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 18? BUY No 15¢ $1 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? BUY No 28¢ $1 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 17? BUY No 14¢ $1 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? BUY No 27¢ $1 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 16? BUY No 7¢ $1 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 16? BUY No 11¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $636.19 · official $636.19 (match) · 266 history records