Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:49:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cb1…f5fb crypto 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (303 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$601 (-6%) realized −$598 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate58%42W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day303.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$590
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (303 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +6.2% -3.9% 58% 49% -15.3%
≤30d 72 +6.2% -3.9% 58% 49% -15.3%
≤90d 72 +6.2% -3.9% 58% 49% -15.3%
all 72 +6.2% -3.9% 58% 49% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover303.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 49% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 31% -23.4%
15% -21.5% 17% -30.8%
20% -29.2% 12% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$69 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$598
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses42 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage1d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day303.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 64¢ 86¢ $26 $34 +$8 (+33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Down 21¢ 14¢ $8 $6 −$3 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $61 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $17 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 28 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 28 $437 −$70 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 28 $718 +$382 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $406 −$206 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 28 $229 −$79 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 28 $191 +$59 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $412 +$59 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 28 $231 −$224 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 28 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $302 +$58 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $47 +$13 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 28 $46 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 28 $141 +$39 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 28 $49 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$30 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $184 +$46 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $73 +$18 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 28 $14 +$6 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $65 +$46 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $48 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $52 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $23 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $29 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 28 $70 +$28 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $64 −$61 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $660 −$464 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $94 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $112 −$14 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $113 −$111 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $296 +$96 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $96 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 28 $143 −$138 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $62 +$36 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 28 $216 −$16 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $65 −$15 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $175 +$21 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 27 $91 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $87 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $122 −$24 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 27 $282 −$86 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $227 −$31 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $89 +$9 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $15 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $12 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $8 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $13 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $14 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $8 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $13 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $16 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $80 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $6 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $84 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.00 · official $40.00 (match) · 367 history records