Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:40:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3cb1…5e96 world 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,595 (+4%) realized +$3,378 · open +$217
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate80%90W / 22L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$712per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$5,608now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$117
14 days+$379
30 days+$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$1,907
politics 20% +$666
other 18% −$72
tech 13% +$42
economics 3% +$197
sports 3% +$795
culture 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +12.7% +2.0% 100% 100% +2.0%
≤30d 32 +6.0% -4.1% 84% 44% -8.2%
≤90d 82 +3.6% -6.2% 87% 48% -6.0%
all 112 +2.4% -7.3% 80% 45% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 45% -5.9%
10% -16.2% 13% -14.9%
15% -24.3% 7% -23.1%
20% -31.7% 3% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$861) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$253 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$5,608
Realized+$3,378
Unrealized+$217
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses90 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions10
Markets (closed)112 / 122
History coverage169d
Avg bet$712
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $935 $1,028 +$93 (+10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $512 $773 +$261 (+51%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $746 $743 −$3 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $561 $654 +$93 (+17%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 99¢ $480 $596 +$116 (+24%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 86¢ 95¢ $516 $572 +$56 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $572 $453 −$119 (-21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $335 $290 −$45 (-13%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 89¢ 62¢ $380 $264 −$116 (-31%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $355 $236 −$119 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 23 $405 +$49 +12%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $508 +$67 +13%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 16 $251 +$4 +2%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? Jun 16 $455 +$25 +6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 16 $788 +$47 +6%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $440 −$3 -1%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $490 +$60 +12%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 15 $291 +$59 +20%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 10 $317 +$31 +10%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 09 $400 +$40 +10%
Will Apple announce an AI-charged Siri during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 08 $401 +$28 +7%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $572 +$44 +8%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $542 +$58 +11%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $527 −$287 -54%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $302 +$73 +24%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $294 +$46 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $510 −$510 -100%
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 01 $603 +$66 +11%
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 Jun 01 $702 +$59 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $578 +$64 +11%
Evo Morales arrested by May 31? Jun 01 $28 +$2 +7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $841 +$89 +11%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $387 +$30 +8%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026? May 30 $373 +$27 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $47 +$85 +180%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 27 $216 −$168 -78%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 27 $603 −$173 -29%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? May 27 $947 +$107 +11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $500 +$48 +10%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $500 +$60 +12%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $206 +$24 +11%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca May 27 $603 +$60 +10%
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic pri May 20 $503 +$86 +17%
Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? May 20 $652 +$62 +10%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $604 +$91 +15%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 19 $20 −$14 -70%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 18 $654 +$90 +14%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on May 15, 2026? May 16 $403 +$15 +4%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15? May 16 $602 +$53 +9%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 16 $302 +$44 +14%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 15, 2026? May 15 $500 +$78 +16%
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? May 14 $623 −$619 -100%
Will Marco Rubio attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 14 $501 +$38 +8%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi May 13 $101 +$19 +18%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 13 $802 +$40 +5%
Will Zachary Shrewsbury be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West V May 13 $453 +$77 +17%
Will Reform UK win at least 2200 council seat elections in the 2026 Un May 11 $602 +$66 +11%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 10 $700 +$53 +8%
Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral May 08 $504 +$114 +23%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? May 08 $285 −$67 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $455 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $345 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $365 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $526 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $576 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $587 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $765 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $958 7d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? SELL Yes 93¢ $255 7d
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $480 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $835 7d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 87¢ $437 7d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $350 8d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 99¢ $347 13d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $405 15d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 91¢ $251 15d
Will Apple announce an AI-charged Siri during the WWDC 2026 keynote? BUY Yes 93¢ $401 18d
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? BUY No 91¢ $400 18d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 41¢ $240 19d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $572 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 80¢ $302 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $510 21d
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May? SELL No 99¢ $669 21d
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $37 22d
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $3 22d
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $416 22d
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $519 22d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 80¢ $484 22d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 89¢ $490 22d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 82¢ $4 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,608.45 · official $5,608.45 (match) · 274 history records