Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:06:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3C 0x3cb5…ed22 other 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$383 (+0%) realized +$502 · open −$119
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate58%90W / 65L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,347per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$279est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$4,160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$231
7 days+$231
14 days+$231
30 days−$461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$1,085
world 24% +$846
crypto 14% +$615
other 13% +$576
economics 9% −$5
finance 6% −$379
sports 5% −$980
tech 4% +$879
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +21.8% +10.2% 100% 33% -7.5%
≤30d 6 -22.3% -29.7% 67% 17% -11.5%
≤90d 23 -5.8% -14.8% 61% 17% -9.2%
all 155 -10.4% -18.9% 58% 23% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 23% -9.3%
10% -26.7% 12% -18.0%
15% -33.8% 10% -25.9%
20% -40.3% 7% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$849) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$116 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$4,160
Realized+$502
Unrealized−$119
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses90 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$279
Open positions6
Markets (closed)155 / 161
History coverage257d
Avg bet$1,347
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $1,764 $1,774 +$10 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 81¢ $810 $815 +$5 (+1%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 55¢ 46¢ $887 $734 −$153 (-17%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $640 $644 +$4 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $170 $184 +$14 (+9%)
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $8,689 +$30 +0%
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? Jun 17 $1,096 +$4 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $304 +$196 +65%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $10,399 +$68 +1%
Valencia vs. Real Madrid May 22 $568 −$566 -100%
Will Valencia Basket win the 2025-26 Euroleague? May 20 $198 −$193 -98%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 13 $8,584 +$6 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? May 13 $4,450 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? May 12 $131 +$17 +13%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 07 $194 −$5 -3%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $200 −$168 -84%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $21,849 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 01 $8,496 +$86 +1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $8,671 −$177 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 20 $740 −$45 -6%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $225 +$275 +122%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $13,700 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 26? Mar 26 $10 −$8 -75%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 25 $1,156 +$35 +3%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 25 $2,803 +$74 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 25 $2,557 +$233 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 25 $1,770 +$220 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 23 $4,660 +$300 +6%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Mar 18 $650 +$100 +15%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 13 $1,860 +$108 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 10 $610 −$233 -38%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 28? Mar 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Mar 09 $41 −$41 -100%
Lions vs. Eagles Mar 09 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa not shake hands on November 10 2025? Mar 09 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 09 $206 −$206 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Mar 09 $687 −$665 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 6? Mar 09 $60 −$60 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 09 $1,204 −$1,204 -100%
Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? Mar 09 $422 −$422 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in October? Mar 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in October? Mar 09 $60 −$60 -100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on November 11? Mar 09 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 08 $830 −$752 -91%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $994 +$50 +5%
Will Binance be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $10,810 +$60 +1%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $301 +$6 +2%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 24 $540 −$180 -33%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 21 $3,847 +$228 +6%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 19 $2,812 +$81 +3%
Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy Feb 12 $690 +$60 +9%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 12 $870 +$120 +14%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 07 $2,684 +$16 +1%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Feb 04 $92 +$20 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $810 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 80¢ $646 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $170 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $304 37h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $2,171 37h
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $9 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $8,689 4d
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? BUY No 100¢ $1,096 4d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 55¢ $54 4d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 55¢ $852 4d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10,467 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10,399 15d
Valencia vs. Real Madrid BUY Valencia 29¢ $83 26d
Valencia vs. Real Madrid BUY Valencia 47¢ $0 26d
Valencia vs. Real Madrid BUY Valencia 47¢ $177 26d
Valencia vs. Real Madrid BUY Valencia 47¢ $11 26d
Valencia vs. Real Madrid BUY Valencia 47¢ $35 26d
Valencia vs. Real Madrid BUY Valencia 47¢ $12 26d
Valencia vs. Real Madrid BUY Valencia 50¢ $32 27d
Valencia vs. Real Madrid BUY Valencia 50¢ $10 27d
Valencia vs. Real Madrid BUY Valencia 50¢ $1 27d
Valencia vs. Real Madrid BUY Valencia 50¢ $1 27d
Valencia vs. Real Madrid BUY Valencia 50¢ $2 27d
Valencia vs. Real Madrid BUY Valencia 50¢ $3 27d
Valencia vs. Real Madrid BUY Valencia 50¢ $196 27d
Valencia vs. Real Madrid BUY Valencia 50¢ $5 27d
Will Valencia Basket win the 2025-26 Euroleague? BUY Yes 20¢ $196 28d
Will Valencia Basket win the 2025-26 Euroleague? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $84 33d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 84¢ $1,209 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,160.50 · official $4,160.60 (match) · 889 history records