Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:06:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3C 0x3cb6…15cd sports 167 markets active 1h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,983 (-2%) realized −$1,983 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%81W / 85L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$579per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$4,168
other 38% −$2,927
crypto 3% −$3,275
world 2% +$180
politics 1% −$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +9.1% -1.3% 57% 29% +3.4%
≤30d 7 +9.1% -1.3% 57% 29% +3.4%
≤90d 7 +9.1% -1.3% 57% 29% +3.4%
all 166 +2.3% -7.5% 49% 48% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 48% -11.4%
10% -16.3% 48% -19.9%
15% -24.4% 46% -27.6%
20% -31.8% 42% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$605) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$455 vs −$457 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$1,983
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses81 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)166 / 167
History coverage630d
Avg bet$579
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Zizou Bergs Zizou Bergs 62¢ 62¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Paul Jubb vs Tomas Barrios Jun 24 $41 −$4 -10%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng Jun 24 $43 −$2 -4%
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Ognjen Milic Jun 24 $20 +$23 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO1) Dec 04 $268 −$268 -100%
Manchester United vs. West Ham: O/U 2.5 Dec 04 $2,811 −$2,525 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Dec 04 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Dec 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Athletic Club vs. Real Madrid: O/U 2.5 Dec 04 $1,602 +$1,209 +75%
Liverpool vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 3.5 Dec 03 $1,682 −$1,312 -78%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-03? Dec 03 $1,712 −$30 -2%
Spread: Thunder (-12.5) Dec 03 $250 +$250 +100%
Newcastle vs. Tottenham: O/U 2.5 Dec 03 $2,253 +$1,449 +64%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Dec 02 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-12-02? Dec 02 $1,144 −$161 -14%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs M80 (BO3) Dec 02 $983 +$1,152 +117%
Bournemouth vs. Everton: O/U 2.5 Dec 02 $1,680 −$1,680 -100%
Fulham vs. Manchester City: O/U 2.5 Dec 02 $1,467 −$25 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 2AM ET Dec 02 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-5.5) Dec 02 $1,502 +$1,279 +85%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) Dec 01 $1,556 −$54 -4%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs M80 (BO3) Dec 01 $996 +$559 +56%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-12-01? Dec 01 $3,003 −$3,003 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Passion UA (BO3) Dec 01 $767 −$767 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-30? Dec 01 $3,098 +$1,668 +54%
Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 230.5 Nov 30 $525 +$485 +92%
Inter Miami CF vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5 Nov 30 $1,603 +$1,809 +113%
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Borussia Dortmund: O/U 2.5 Nov 29 $1,320 +$809 +61%
Will Curtis Sliwa win Staten Island? Nov 22 $352 −$351 -100%
Alaves vs. Celta Vigo: O/U 2.5 Nov 22 $435 −$435 -100%
Clemson vs. Louisville Nov 15 $562 −$562 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14? Nov 14 $3,253 −$3,191 -98%
Will Finland win on 2025-11-14? Nov 14 $1,110 −$1,110 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2025-11-14? Nov 14 $298 −$298 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2025-11-14? Nov 14 $2,844 +$1,754 +62%
Will Japan win on 2025-11-14? Nov 14 $1,155 −$1,155 -100%
Will Iceland win on 2025-11-13? Nov 14 $2,798 +$1,574 +56%
Will Portugal win on 2025-11-13? Nov 13 $371 −$371 -100%
Will Hungary win on 2025-11-13? Nov 13 $1,542 −$24 -2%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Taylor Fritz vs Alex de Mi Nov 13 $1,440 −$1,440 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2025-11-13? Nov 13 $301 −$301 -100%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2025-11-13? Nov 13 $1,420 −$1,420 -100%
Oilers vs. Flyers Nov 13 $605 +$495 +82%
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5) Nov 13 $125 −$125 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-3.5) Nov 13 $90 −$90 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5) Nov 13 $275 −$275 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-4.5) Nov 13 $250 −$250 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Zizou Bergs BUY Zizou Bergs 62¢ $37 36m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Paul Jubb vs Tomas Barrios SELL Paul Jubb 41¢ $5 36m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Paul Jubb vs Tomas Barrios SELL Paul Jubb 42¢ $32 37m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Paul Jubb vs Tomas Barrios BUY Paul Jubb 45¢ $41 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng SELL Michael Zheng 55¢ $41 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Laslo Djere vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 56¢ $43 1h
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Ognjen Milic SELL Ognjen Milic 88¢ $38 1h
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Ognjen Milic SELL Ognjen Milic 88¢ $4 1h
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Ognjen Milic BUY Ognjen Milic 40¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO1) BUY Vitality 42¢ $266 201d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO1) BUY Vitality 42¢ $2 201d
Manchester United vs. West Ham: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 62¢ $267 201d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $18 202d
Manchester United vs. West Ham: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 61¢ $20 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $7 202d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $7 202d
Manchester United vs. West Ham: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $2,811 202d
Athletic Club vs. Real Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $370 202d
Liverpool vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 37¢ $370 202d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.95 · official $35.95 (match) · 789 history records