Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cb7…1a88 weather 1130 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$254 (-1%) realized −$241 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%511W / 616L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days+$78
14 days−$89
30 days−$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$937
sports 1% +$261
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 +13.3% +2.5% 48% 44% -6.6%
≤30d 410 -2.6% -11.9% 47% 44% -11.0%
≤90d 1127 -2.1% -11.4% 45% 43% -11.3%
all 1127 -2.1% -11.4% 45% 43% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 43% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 39% -19.8%
15% -27.7% 35% -27.6%
20% -34.8% 30% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$18 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$241
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses511 / 616
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1127 / 1130
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? Yes 48¢ 45¢ $15 $15 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 218 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$18 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $112 +$59 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 −$7 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 +$11 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $7 +$19 +274%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $24 −$23 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$10 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$5 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$5 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$5 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 +$73 +332%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$11 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$5 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$9 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$9 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$6 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 +$19 +287%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$27 +606%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 −$10 -38%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $12 −$11 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $278 +$20 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 +$9 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 +$10 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$16 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$23 +249%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $78 +$28 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$5 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$8 +92%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$5 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 −$18 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$18 +386%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $22 +$46 +210%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $96 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 48¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $38 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 98¢ $171 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 63¢ $112 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 56¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 75¢ $23 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 12h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 18h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 37¢ $7 19h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 36¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY Yes 71¢ $21 19h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 19h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 37¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 36¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 36¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 21h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 21h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 84¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.56 · official $111.98 · 3500 history records