Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:48:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cbf…52f7 crypto 694 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate89%618W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$16
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$5
weather 1% −$11
other 1% −$11
world 0% −$3
sports 0% −$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 -2.5% -11.8% 94% 7% -10.5%
≤30d 647 -2.7% -12.0% 93% 7% -10.3%
≤90d 647 -2.7% -12.0% 93% 7% -10.3%
all 694 -2.4% -11.7% 89% 8% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 8% -10.3%
10% -20.1% 5% -18.9%
15% -27.8% 2% -26.8%
20% -34.9% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses618 / 76
Open positions0
Markets (closed)694 / 694
History coverage103d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 694 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1409 history records