trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +12.5% | +1.8% | 100% | 100% | +1.8% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -5.4% | -14.4% | 38% | 15% | -7.4% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -5.4% | -14.4% | 38% | 15% | -7.4% |
| all | 26 | +32.3% | +19.7% | 42% | 12% | +1.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +19.7% | 12% | +1.5% |
| 10% | +8.2% | 8% | -8.3% |
| 15% | -2.2% | 4% | -17.1% |
| 20% | -11.8% | 4% | -25.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $50 | $50 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 17 | $3 | $0 | +12% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | May 26 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 26 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 26 | $54 | $0 | +1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 26 | $54 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 25 | $38 | $0 | -0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 25 | $54 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 24 | $46 | −$5 | -12% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 23 | $53 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 23 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 23 | $29 | −$1 | -4% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 22 | $54 | −$1 | -1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 21 | $45 | +$14 | +31% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York | Jun 27 | $6 | +$60 | +1040% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 17 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? | Apr 15 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? | Apr 14 | $9 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? | Apr 13 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Apr 12 | $9 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days? | Apr 12 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? | Mar 29 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Solana above $130 on March 28? | Mar 28 | $13 | −$4 | -30% |
| Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 | Mar 28 | $13 | $0 | +0% |