Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:27:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3C 0x3cc3…fd93 sports 41 markets active 9h ago coverage 8d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$13 (+12%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%24W / 17L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$11
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$11
other 9% +$6
world 5% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +30.3% +17.9% 59% 59% +0.4%
≤30d 41 +29.7% +17.3% 59% 59% +0.9%
≤90d 41 +29.7% +17.3% 59% 59% +0.9%
all 41 +29.7% +17.3% 59% 59% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.3% 59% +0.9%
10% +6.1% 59% -8.8%
15% -4.1% 59% -17.6%
20% -13.5% 56% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses24 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage8d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 +$3 +65%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2 +$1 +73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 +$2 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$5 +97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$7 +129%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$3 +140%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +128%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 +$4 +118%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$4 +79%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$3 +140%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$2 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$3 +134%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +275%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$2 +180%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +250%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $5 9h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 12h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 12h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $2 19h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $5 19h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 44h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 44h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 46h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $5 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $2 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $2 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $7 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $3 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $5 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $2 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $5 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $2 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records